For years, politicians have been able to ignore young voters with few electoral consequences. IF Senior Researcher, Toby Whelton, asks whether that is about to change.
Young voters ignored
Young voters have been repeatedly overlooked by successive governments. Tuition fees have been tripled, home ownership largely remains out of reach, and taxes have risen. Youth clubs have been decimated, working-age benefits reduced, while we wonder why almost a million 16−24 year-olds are classed as NEETs (Not in Education, Employment, or Training).
Meanwhile, provision for older generations has not merely been protected but expanded. The state pension has been triple-locked, assets and wealth remain relatively lightly taxed, and three million pensioners living in millionaire households continue to receive free prescriptions and concessionary travel.
This is borne out in the data. Our research shows that the disparity in government spending per pensioner versus per child has grown by 170% over the past twenty years.
The grey bloc
This entrenched intergenerational unfairness is not accidental, but rather a product of the power of the grey vote.
Older cohorts remain larger than younger ones, and turnout among older voters far exceeds that of the young. In the 2024 General Election, around half of all votes were cast by over-55s. This is compounded by the fact that older generations are more likely to vote as a bloc in their collective interest, whereas younger voters are more likely to be issue-led.
The turnout gap is particularly stark. Last election, only 37% of 18–24 year-olds voted, compared with 73% of those aged 65 and over. A vicious circle has developed: limited voting power leads to neglect, neglect fuels disillusionment, and disillusionment depresses turnout further.
Loss of hope
Predictions of a “youthquake” that would upend the electoral landscape during the height of Corbyn’s Labour Party failed to materialise. Although the current Labour government’s vote share was strongest among under-35s, they seem to have actively governed against young people’s interests by raising their taxes and retroactively worsening student loan terms for young graduates.
Even Reform, which not long ago was said to be turning a generation of young men right-wing, appears to have given up. Nigel Farage’s recent speech criticising working from home was a direct appeal to older voters (a third of over-65s are against remote work), even if at the expense of alienating younger workers.
International comparison
Comparable countries face similar demographic pressures, and France’s “Nicolas, 30 ans” meme shows that a sense of generational inequity is far from unique to the UK.
However, elsewhere, politicians have been quicker to capitalise on young people’s disaffection. Portugal gives income tax breaks to under-35s, Poland to under-26s, and Hungary to under-25s. During the 2022 French presidential campaign, Marine Le Pen proposed abolishing income tax for all under-30s, regardless of income.
Hard-right populist parties have been the quickest to exploit young people’s dissatisfaction with the status quo. Spain’s Vox party, France’s National Rally, and Germany’s AfD have surged in popularity amongst the young.
Yet centre-left parties have also been able to tap into the young vote. In Australia, Anthony Albanese’s pledge to cut student debt by 20% helped mobilise younger voters and contributed to an unexpectedly decisive electoral victory. In Canada, the 2024 federal budget was explicitly titled “Fairness for Every Generation”.
How long will it be until our political parties start to follow suit?
A shifting electoral centre of gravity
In the UK, age has overtaken class as the strongest predictor of voting behaviour. However, this may be as much a case of generation as age.
Historically, voting patterns have shifted as individuals aged. Voters tended to become more conservative as they accumulated assets, wealth, and family responsibilities, i.e. things to conserve. Age was less a matter of wisdom than a proxy of material position.
Millennials have disrupted this pattern. Many have not reached the economic milestones, such as home ownership and family formation, that previous generations enjoyed. As a result, their voting behaviour more closely resembles Gen Z than the generations above them.
This dynamic may begin to counterbalance the dominance of the grey vote. By the next election, the median voter will be a millennial. Lowering the voting age to 16 will add over 1.5 million young voters to the electorate. If youth turnout were to return to its level a decade ago (around 55%), a further three million young votes would be in play.
Student loans: a sign to come
The recent furor over the unfairness of student loans hints at the latent power of the young vote. While triggered by retroactive changes to loan terms at last year’s Autumn Budget, much of the outcry is based on features of the loan that have existed for over a decade. Only now that some of the 5.8 million graduates affected by tripled tuition fees are in positions of influence and power in media and government, is it receiving attention.
Student loans may be a defining moment in the political formation of younger voters. A recent survey found that fairer student loan policies would affect how 84% of graduates would vote in the next election. Yet it may be the case that student loans are just the tip of the iceberg. It is possible that the recent outcry has served as an outlet for much deeper feelings of injustice held by younger generations, waiting to find expression. There is hope that the genie is now out of the bottle.
Forced to listen
In an ideal world, policymaking would be based on fairness and efficacy, irrespective of distorted electoral incentives. So far, this has not been the case for the treatment of younger generations. Now, politicians may no longer have a choice but to listen.
The young vote is there to be won. More radical parties, such as the Greens and Reform, have been the first to take notice. But there is a chance that young voters may be the one pathway for either of Britain’s two historically dominant parties to escape electoral oblivion.